Donald Trump’s Resilient Polling in 2020’s Tipping-Point State | Newsweek

Former President Donald Trump‘s polling in Wisconsin is stronger than four years ago and well within the 2020 polling error, but political experts say this may not necessarily mean he’s winning over new voters in the crucial battleground state.

Wisconsin was the tipping point in the 2020 presidential race between Trump and President Joe Biden. It carried Biden to 270 Electoral College votes, enough to win the election. It’s one of a handful of states that could be the tipping point again in November.

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow polling lead in Wisconsin less than two months until Election Day, according to the leading polling averages. But surveys of the Badger State have also been better for Trump this time around compared to four years ago, when polling data suggested he could lose the state by nearly 10 points. Biden ultimately carried Wisconsin by less than a single percentage point—far too close, if you were a Democrat.

In 2020, polls underestimated Trump more in Wisconsin than in any other state, and a similar polling error this year would be devastating to Harris’ chances of winning the state. However, two political experts from Wisconsin told Newsweek that the infamous 2020 polling error likely could not be replicated, as pollsters have changed their methodology since the last presidential race.

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FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate showed Biden leading in the state by 8.4 points, while Real Clear Politics average showed him up by 6.7 points on Election Day four years ago. Ultimately, Biden only won Wisconsin by 0.63 points or about 20,000 votes.

As of September, FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate has Harris up by 1.6 points, and RealClearPolitics’ average has Harris up by 1.2 points—well within the 2020 polling error.

Edward J. Miller, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point and co-director of the Center for the Small City, told Newsweek that the polling difference might be attributed to pollsters adjusting their methodologies from 2020 and simply better reflects where the race actually is, rather than Trump winning over a substantial number of voters who opposed him four years earlier.

Trump may be facing a particularly chilly reception from Republican voters in the Milwaukee area, Miller said, noting that the former president isn’t “drawing much more” support from voters who previously backed Democrats in the state.

“There are some Republicans down there…that opposed him. This is moreso than in northern Wisconsin and rural areas,” Miller said.

Although suburban counties outside of Milwaukee still backed Trump in 2020, Democrats have made gains in the region in recent years.

Henrik M. Schatzinger, a professor of political science at Ripon College outside Green Bay, told Newsweek that there is a “sizable” group of his supporters who don’t participate in polls but only make their voices known at the ballot box. He said that Trump’s stronger 2024 polling in the state may be due to pollsters adjusting their methodologies based on past results.

“For pollsters, this is an issue about weighting and sampling, where you have to make statistical adjustments. In the last few years, we have also seen adjustments as to how pollsters contact participants. They now use a better mix of contact methods and approach people via text messages, phone, postcards, and QR codes. It remains to be seen if these adjustments have been effective this year,” Schatzinger said.

Another reason his polling may be stronger this time is because Republicans have been investing heavily in the state, including by holding their convention in Milwaukee.

The state is also demographically key to both candidates, as it is likely to reflect their support among white voters without bachelor’s degrees.

“This group of voters makes up 58 percent of registered voters, which is a higher share than any of the seven battleground states. To win the election, you need to get sufficient support from white working-class voters, and there is no better test case for this than Wisconsin,” he said.

Jacob Fischer, Trump’s Wisconsin press secretary, in a statement to Newsweek,pointed to a Teamsters poll showing rank-and-file members backing Trump by a 60-34 margin and the Emerson poll showing Trump up in the state.

“Regardless of what the polls say, Wisconsinites know that Kamala and the Democrat Party are only paying lip services to top concerns for Wisconsin families, while President Trump has a record of helping hard-working Wisconsin families. Donald Trump is the only candidate who will prioritize working Wisconsinites and Make America Affordable again,” he said.

Several pollsters that gave Biden a more comfortable lead in 2020 show the race much closer in 2024.

An Emerson College poll conducted among 1,000 likely voters from September 15 to 18 found Trump with a single-point lead over Harris (50 percent to 49 percent). But the same poll from around the same time in 2020 found Biden with a 6-point lead over Trump (51 percent to 45 percent). That poll surveyed 823 likely voters from September 6 to September 8 of that year.

Elsewhere, a Marist College poll, conducted between September 12 and September 17, 2024, found Harris leading Trump by a single point in Wisconsin (50 percent to 49 percent). A Marist poll conducted from September 20 to September 24, 2020, among 727 likely voters showed Biden up 10 points (54 percent to 44 percent).

Notably, the Marquette Law School poll, viewed as the gold standard for Wisconsin, did not show Trump gain from 2020.

A Marquette poll released earlier this month showed Harris up four points (52 percent to 48 percent). It surveyed 738 likely voters from August 28 to September 5. For comparison, a Marquette poll from August 30 to September 3, 2024, showed Biden with a 4-point lead (48 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 688 likely voters.

Political scientist Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote a week ago that Wisconsin “stands out as having had unrealistically optimistic polling for Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.” However, he noted whether the polls will have the same error in November is unclear.

“Maybe Trump will be understated again: if so, he is almost certainly going to win the election given how close the polls are now. Maybe Harris will be understated: if so, she is in a great position to win given that she appears to already lead in enough states to win 270 electoral votes, albeit barely,” he wrote.

Aaron Weinschenk, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay, told Newsweek that previous polls may have been off because they do not capture late changes in support or fully capture certain subgroups within states.

“I think the Harris campaign should definitely be concerned about the possibility of Trump’s support being underestimated given what has happened in Wisconsin and other battleground states in terms of polling,” Weinschenk said.

With only 10 Electoral College votes, Wisconsin is smaller than other battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Georgia or North Carolina. Still, it could end up being the tipping point again in November, according to Schatzinger from Ripon College.

Still, Trump and Harris both have numerous paths to 270 without winning Wisconsin, as they could win various combinations of other swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina or Pennsylvania, to make up for a loss in the Badger State.

Democrats remain focused on their so-called “blue wall,” hoping to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as their easiest path to 270. Some political analysts view Pennsylvania as Harris’ must-win state, as losing there would more severely complicate her path and make her entirely dependent on the Sun Belt states.

Miller said that making appearances on the ground is crucial to winning over the state’s highly engaged voters. Specifically, candidates must get out of their comfort zones and visit areas away from their voter bases in the state—rural areas for Trump and Madison and Milwaukee for Harris—to narrow the margin in places they are unlikely to win.

He noted that Wisconsin prides itself on having one of the highest turnouts in the country and that the student population in places like La Crosse and Stevens Point could be crucial for Harris.

Hillary Clinton barnstormed those counties in the 2016 primary and then largely failed to return for the general election. She ended up losing Wisconsin by less than a point and thus the election to Donald Trump.