Dylan Polkinghorne
Assistant Teaching Professor, Cofrin School of Business, University of Wisconsin – Green Bay
Do you think the hiring dynamic is currently tilted in favor of employees or employers?
The recent shift and current trend in 2025 is that hiring dynamics have shifted toward employers. The job market has changed since the pandemic, allowing organizations to adjust their employment strategies, which has led to fewer available roles. Organizations can offer fewer job openings, but this is mainly due to increased worker confidence and the type of job designs employees are seeking. Employees are less willing to leave their current positions and invest in their existing roles. Recent trends have shown a decline in job openings over the past 10 months to 7.2 million. This decrease is due to over 300,000 fewer job openings in the last two months, and continues to reduce talent competition.
Workers are showing signs of caution. The quit rates have continued at 2.0% for the four straight months, which is well below pre-pandemic levels. This indicates lower confidence in landing better opportunities. There is a low percentage means that leaders are dissatisfied with the pool of qualified candidates. While workers are concerned with securing a position within the next three months. This isn’t a complete reversal of pre-pandemic tightness, but the momentum clearly favors those doing the hiring.
With inflation still significant, what is your advice for people looking to protect their finances?
Inflation in the U.S. ticked up to 2,9% for the 12 months ending in August 2025, driven by the rises in shelter and food costs, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and eroding purchasing power. This is not at the peak levels of 2022; it is still “significant” enough to warrant proactive steps. Although it would be best to consult your financial advisor for a more personal plan, there are a few steps that could be taken to help in these times:
Invest in yourself.
Diversify into inflation-hedging assets.
Budget ruthlessly and build buffers.
Lock in fixed rates where possible.
Minimize taxes and fees.
Given the current circumstances, what trends do you expect to see in terms of unemployment in the foreseeable future?
As of August 2025, the unemployment rate was 4.3% slightly up from the previous months, and the highest it has been since October 2021. Looking forward to the rest of 2025 and 2026, I predict there to be a gradual upward drift in unemployment rates. This stems from the modest rises being tied to slowing hiring; the labor market is stable but vulnerable, and the overall downside of risks is shifting with tariffs and policy changes. With that, I expect to see a steady but not alarming increase, which can be closely monitored with the BLS reports for early signals of more drastic changes.
What are your predictions for the job market as we move forward during 2025 (job gains, hiring confidence, quit rates, etc.)?
With the rest of 2025, the U.S. job market will likely continue its “soft landing” trajectory, where it is more resilient but cooling, with employers being in charge of the market. This could be due to a lower number of job gains, a decline in hiring confidence, and employees remaining in their roles, stable quit rates, and the overall market being employer-favored. I do not believe that 2025 will be a boom year, which can focus on upskilling for in-demand fields. These fields could include AI, healthcare, and green tech.
Source: States Where Unemployment Claims Are Increasing the Most